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Wednesday, November 5, 2008

4 Senate seats and 10000 votes

There are 4 senate seats without a currently declared victor: Minnesota, Alaska, Oregon and Georgia. In MN, AK and OR, the currently leader is ahead by 690, 6187, and 3353 votes. In Georgia, the leader requires 50% of the votes to win outright without a run-off election, and Chambliss is 6250 (or 6251, who knows) votes short of the 50% mark.

In all four races, the Republican is ahead. Chambliss, without major interference, is likely to win the run-off election, as the Libertarian candidate votes will likely go to him. In Alaska, incumbent and current convict Ted Stevens is beating Begich. In Minnesota, currently Norm Coleman is ahead of comedian Al Franken, while in Oregon, Smith is edging out Merkley.

That's a total of 690+6187+3353+6250 = 16480 votes. This is somewhat of a reprise but in the Republican direction of the 2006 senate elections. There, 10078 votes was the total winning margin for the Democrats in the Montana and Virginia senate elections.

A lot of close elections: it's important to vote, you never know when your vote is needed.

Update. I thought CNN was reporting 99% or 100% in those races when I took the data. Several people I talked to did try to correct my reading of the data. Oh well. Currently I hear there are possibly 50-100 thousand additional votes in Alaska. Also, margins have changed. Minnesota: 477, Oregon:3932, Alaska unchanged at 3353 and Georgia is also unchanged needing 6250 votes. A total now of 14012 vote differential.

Update 2. Even as I wrote that, CNN updated data for Oregon and the democrat is now ahead by 6129 votes! Quite a reverse from being down 3932. That's based on 78% precincts reporting. I give. up. No more updates. Point still holds, but illustration would keep changing.

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